Pakistan is grappling with rising wheat flour prices due to a slight shortfall in national wheat reserves and supply chain disruptions caused by recent floods, according to official data.
Tight Wheat Supply Drives Price Hike
The country’s wheat stock stands at 33.47 million tons, just shy of the annual demand of 33.58 million tons, creating a deficit of 0.11 million tons. This gap has triggered a noticeable spike in flour prices across markets. For instance, a 15kg bag of flour now costs between Rs1,340 and Rs1,450, up from Rs1,060–1,100 in early August 2025. Similarly, a 20kg bag has jumped by nearly Rs500 in just one month, hitting household budgets hard and raising concerns among traders.
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Floods Worsen Supply Chain Woes
Recent floods in major wheat-growing regions, particularly in Punjab and Sindh, have damaged crops and disrupted the flow of wheat from mills to markets. The Finance Ministry’s August 2025 report highlighted that these floods could strain food availability and add financial pressure in affected areas. The disruptions have made it harder for mills to maintain steady supplies, further pushing prices upward.
Government Steps In to Ease Prices
To address the crisis, the Punjab government has started releasing wheat from its reserves, setting a price of Rs2,900 per 40kg for public-sector wheat. However, open market prices have climbed to Rs3,100 per maund, a sharp Rs1,000 increase from last month. Punjab holds the largest wheat reserves at 22.94 million tons, followed by Sindh (4.93 million tons), Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (1.74 million tons), Balochistan (1.46 million tons), and PASSCO (2.45 million tons) for the 2025–26 food year.
No Wheat Imports Planned
Pakistan produced 28.39 million tons of wheat from 9.1 million hectares this year, with an additional 5.08 million tons carried over from 2024. Despite the shortfall, the government has decided against importing wheat. At the 8th Wheat Board Meeting in August 2025, Federal Minister for National Food Security Rana Tanveer Hussain emphasized that current reserves are sufficient to meet demand. He also assured support for local farmers to boost production.
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Fertilizer Availability for Rabi Season
Hussain noted that urea and other fertilizers are sufficiently available for the upcoming Rabi planting season, though global price increases pose challenges. He urged better coordination between federal and provincial authorities to address policy issues under the 18th Constitutional Amendment, which decentralizes agricultural oversight.
What’s Next for Consumers?
With flour prices rising and flood-related disruptions ongoing, households may face higher food costs in the coming months. The government’s efforts to release reserves aim to stabilize the market, but open market trends suggest prices may remain volatile. Analysts expect close monitoring of supply chains and weather patterns to determine if further interventions are needed.
