Pakistan’s cotton sector has shown strong resilience in the face of heavy rains and flooding in key growing areas. According to a recent report from Arif Habib Limited (AHL), total cotton arrivals and imports reached 2,060,000 bales in the first quarter of fiscal year 2026 (1QFY26), a 55% increase from the same period last year. This growth comes even as adverse weather hit Punjab and Sindh, the nation’s top cotton belts.
The data highlights a combined effort from local harvests and steady imports to meet the textile industry’s needs. Despite the challenges, the sector’s output has fueled a pickup in exports, offering a bright spot for the economy.
Key Figures from the Report
AHL’s analysis, drawing from Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association (PCGA) and Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) data, breaks down the numbers for September 2025:
| Category | Sep-25 (‘000 bales) | Sep-24 (‘000 bales) | YoY Change | Aug-25 (‘000 bales) | MoM Change | 1QFY26 (‘000 bales) | 1QFY25 (‘000 bales) | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total (Arrivals + Imports) | 2,060 | 945 | 118.0% | 1,032 | 99.6% | 4,056 | 2,617 | 55.0% |
| Cotton Arrivals | 1,709 | 814 | 109.9% | 742 | 130.3% | 3,444 | 2,040 | 68.8% |
| Cotton Imports | 351 | 131 | 168.0% | 290 | 20.9% | 612 | 577 | 6.1% |
Imports in USD terms hit $137 million, up 136.8% year-over-year, while the value climbed to $58 million from $31 million in September 2024.
This surge in supply has directly supported the textile mills, which rely on cotton for about 60% of Pakistan’s export earnings.
Imports on the Rise: A Trend of Reliance
The report’s trend chart shows a clear uptick in imports over the past two years. From a low of around 50,000 bales in late 2023, volumes have climbed steadily, peaking at 355,000 bales in September 2025. In USD millions, the cost has followed suit, reaching $137 million this month.
While local arrivals have grown, imports now fill a bigger gap. AHL notes that prolonged flooding has delayed harvests, pushing mills to import more from countries like Brazil and the US to keep production humming.
This pattern underscores Pakistan’s ongoing challenge: boosting domestic output to cut the $1.9 billion projected import bill for FY25, as highlighted in earlier AHL insights.
Textile Exports Feel the Boost
The influx of cotton has paid off in the export market. In 1QFY26, textile shipments rose 4.0% in quantity and 7.3% in USD value, per PBS data. This marks a rebound from earlier dips, driven by stable global demand and lower energy costs.
Key drivers include ready-made garments and knitwear, which make up over half of exports. Mills have ramped up operations, adding shifts to handle the steady supply.
AHL expects this momentum to continue if weather stabilizes, but warns of risks from potential La Niña rains in late 2025.
Challenges Amid the Gains
Floods have damaged up to 20% of crops in Punjab, per early PCGA estimates, yet arrivals beat expectations thanks to better ginning efficiency. Sindh, less hit, contributed a larger share this year.
Longer-term, low farmer incomes and pest issues keep production volatile. The government eyes Bt cotton subsidies to lift yields to 8 million bales annually.
For deeper dives, check AHL’s full report shared on X:
Outlook for the Season
With imports steady and arrivals picking up, the sector eyes 6-7 million bales total for FY26. This could keep exports on track for $19 billion, barring major disruptions.
Farmers and mills call for better seeds and insurance to weather future storms. Stay with nawatimes.com for cotton market updates.
